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Vol II, Population Dynamics of Nepal and Related Issues of Sustainable Development, November, 1993 Population Growth Patterns in Nepal, 1971-1981: A District Level Analysis Devendra Prasad Shrestha Shrestha used district level data for examining population growth patterns in Nepal for the period 1971-1981. He has examined the variations in the population growth patterns across 75 districts of Nepal on the basis of crude death rate (CDR), crude birth rate (CBR), and the rate of net-migration (RNM) by using indirect demographic techniques for estimating these components. He concludes that rate of net-migration was more important than other components in determining variations in the rate of total population increase. Relatively more developed districts were the ones experiencing high population growth rate and that minimizing regional disparities in the levels of development and population growth requires area specific regional approach rather than one policy for the country as a whole. Nepal's Population Problem: A Time Bomb Yagya Bahadur Karki Karki attempts to answer three questions: Under different mortality and fertility scenarios, what will be population size of Nepal in the next 50 years? how long the population of Nepal will increase and what will be the minimum and maximum size of population before stabilizing? He projects Nepal's population up to 2041 and then to 2141 based on the adjusted population of 1991. Given the relatively large younger population (42%) and low socio-economic conditions, the present population of Nepal (above 19 million) will stabilize around 40, 70 and 90 million under low, medium and high fertility assumptions by about the end of the next century. The pace of future mortality decline could also determine the maximum population size of Nepal given slow fertility decline. Age and Sex Composition in Nepal Dhruba Das Ulak Ulak has compiled data on age and sex composition from 1911 to 1991 censuses. He interprets the changes in sex composition by rural/urban areas and development and geographical region. He further examines the pattern of sex composition by age groups by rural/urban areas. Similarly, age structure of Nepal by sex from 1952/54 to 1991 has been examined by rural/urban area. He also presents data on dependency ratio, aged child ratio, old age ratio, child ratio, and median age for both males and females from 1952/54 to 1991 censuses. Without significant increase in the overall life expectancy, the sex ratio of older age group has been increasing after the 1952/54 census and that dependency ratio has also been increasing. High fertility and declining mortality have also contributed to declining median age over the years. Ulak concludes that the gender gap in life expectancy with respect to median age has been narrowing. Rethinking Fertility Transition: Some Observations from Nepal Dilli Ram Dahal Dahal observes that cultural variations in Nepal with multi-ethnic/caste society are mainly responsible for variations in fertility and nuptiality. He suggests to test this hypothesis by analyzing wide range of data and in-depth observation. Unless the cultural values embedded in the Nepalese society are properly addressed, Dahal concludes that, family planning probably is not going to make a dent in reducing fertility in Nepal. Without adequate knowledge of the family kinship structure with strong son preference and inheritance, it is difficult to tackle the issue of high fertility in Nepal. Estimation of Fertility in Nepal Pushp Lal Joshi Joshi attempts to estimate fertility at national, urban and rural levels on the 10 percent sample of the 1991 census schedule and the previous census data. He has used both direct and indirect techniques for estimating fertility, but indirect technique produced a TFR of 5.7 at the national level and 4.0 for the urban areas. On the basis of the P/F ratio, the fertility of Nepal has declined only marginally. Nuptiality Levels and Trends in Nepal Laxmi Bilas Acharya Acharya examines the nuptiality levels and trends in Nepal based on 10 per cent sample of the 1991 census. He compares nuptiality indicators of 1991 with those of 1981 and examines if nuptiality indicators of 1991 support lower fertility levels. Presenting data on sex composition and marital status by 5 years age group between 1971-1991 at the national and urban levels, he examines age at marriage, proportions ultimately married, speed of marriage and probability of marriage by using Coale's nuptiality parameters. The major conclusions are that proportions of never married females in urban Nepal are increasing over time. This is also true for males at the national level. The estimated singulate mean age at marriage in 1991 appeared as 21.4 and 18.1 years for males and females favouring the decreasing trend in fertility. About 95 per cent of couples are ultimately married and that speed of marriage has been increasing with increasing marriage probability below the age of 20 years. Acharya concludes that nuptiality level observed in 1991 favours lower fertility. The Changing Demand for Children and Socioeconomic Development in Nepal Adrian C. Hayes Hayes examines the changing demand for children in Nepal with respect to socio-economic development for the period 1976-1991. The data on demand for children among currently married women of reproductive age indicated an ideal family size of about 3 children and that over half these women wanted no children. Hayes suggested for a better understanding of the interrelationship between changing demand for children and changing socio-economic development in Nepal. Safe Motherhood Inititative: A Study of the Knowledge and Attitude of Mothers-in-Law Regarding Intra-Conceptional Care of Their Daughters-in-Law Munu Thapa Thapa examines the role of mothers-in-law during conception of their daughters-in-law as pre-requisite to safe-motherhood initiative. This study includes the results from the base line information on 150 mothers-in-law by the use of semi-structured interview schedule. The study was conducted in four sessions: preliminary data collection, planned education sessions followed by immediate post-test, follow-up survey 6 months after the educational sessions, and collection of post-test data. Two villages about 8-10 kms. far from Kathmandu city were the places in which mothers-in-law with at least one daughter-in-law with one child below 5 years were selected. Only 99 mothers-in-law participated in all four sessions. The conclusions were: educational sessions were effective in raising awareness of the mothers-in-law in practicing intra-conceptional care of their daughters-in-law. Thapa demonstrated the value of such study in bringing about changes among rural women. Population, Environment and Sustainable Development in Nepal Som Prasad Pudasaini Pudasaini examines the interrelationship between population, environment and sustainable development in Nepal. While discussing the components of population growth in Nepal, he describes the inherent effect of swelling population on deforestation and soil erosion, bio-diversity, fresh water, and pollution. Pudasaini discusses the issue of sustainable development of Nepal in relation to food security and agriculture of hill and the Tarai of Nepal, forest and bio-diversity, energy, and industry. He concludes that the success of sustainable development in relation to population will depend on the level of political commitment, improvement in management and implementation capacity and coordinating mechanism for both development and population planning in Nepal. Population Planning and Sustainable Development: Need for Reorienting Intervention Strategies in South Asia Ashish Bose Prof. Bose presents his innovative paper drawing examples from India. His paper is equally applicable to Nepal and other developing countries. He says "Nepal offers a fascinating case-study for understanding this complex interrelationship between population, resources and environment in the context of sustainable development". He pleads for reorienting intervention strategies. The strategies of COMIEC (contraceptive technology, monetary incentive, and information, education and communication) has not been successful in India and similar countries elsewhere. Prof. Bose argues for 100 per cent literacy rate for women. After the preamble of Bali Declaration, he endorses the policy of alleviating poverty as fundamental to achieving sustainable development. Satisfaction of basic needs is the first step to achieving sustainable development. He innovates a new strategy called BLISS as an alternate to COMIEC. BLISS stands for basic needs, 100 per cent literacy, schooling up to secondary level for both sexes, and skill formation for both sexes. He argues for designing special programme for adolescent girls in the age group 14-18 years. Finally, Prof. Bose pleads "for linking population to environment and for redesigning IEC strategies to educate the people about the need for ecological balance and environmental protection in the context of sustainable development. Nepal offers an excellent case study for understanding the nexus between population and environment. Population Growth and Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia: Crisis Looms Mercedes B. Concepcion Prof. Concepcion's paper, drawing various socio-economic-demographic, and environmental statistics from 10 countries such as Brunei Darussalam, Combodia, Indonesia, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, analyzes the population dimension of these countries in terms of crude density ratios, annual rates of growth, crude birth rates, and crude death rates for the various periods from 1980 to 2025. She observes that in countries where fertility has fallen rapidly, the growth of the labour force soon drops behind that of the total population. In countries where the birth rates continue to be high, the yearly rates of increase in population of working age are seen to surpass 2 per cent even at the start of the 21st century... Rapid drop in the fertility of younger married women should be the target of more effective family planning programmes and other associated socio-economic changes. Prof. Concepcion discusses the issues of urbanization and migration. She examines population pressure and environment with respect to the situation of the respective countries in terms of critical or serious conditions. She has called for saving the environment for future generations. She suggests "reductions in consumption and wastage levels, increases in recycling... improvements in energy efficiency and efforts at soil conservation... But population is part of every equation, reducing population increments can contribute immensely. Population and Sustainable Development in Indonesia Gavin W. Jones Prof. Jones examines the issues of population and sustainable development in Indonesia. He concludes that Indonesia has tackled the issues of sustainable development in terns of implementing active family planning programmes as a component of sustainable development strategies with stress given to fostering spiritual values, community life and social harmony. He further says that our understanding of the linkages remains very imperfect, and this leaves us in great uncertainty about the kind of development that should be fostered and the degree of urgency in stabilizing population if we are to meet the criterion of long-term sustainability. |
© Copyright 2008 Central Department of Population Studies.